Methodology
The Freight Fraud Index is a monthly composite scored from 0 to 100, derived entirely from cited public data. Transparency is the point: every input, weight, and threshold below is published so that any reader can reproduce the number and judge it for themselves. Nothing here is a black box.
Components & weights
The Index blends four components. Each contributes a fixed share of the final score:
| Component | Weight |
|---|---|
| Incident volume | 35% |
| Financial loss | 35% |
| Strategic / identity-fraud share | 20% |
| Flagged fraud-entity growth | 10% |
How the score is computed
For each month we run four steps:
- Anchor to a baseline.Each component is compared against a fixed baseline period (illustrative 2024 monthly averages, listed below). The baseline is what the value “normal” looks like.
- Normalize to a 0–100 scale. Every component is rescaled so that a value equal to its baseline maps to 50:
normalized = clamp((value / baseline) × 50, 0, 100) - Take the weighted sum. The normalized components are combined using the weights above.
- Round and band. The weighted sum is rounded to a whole number, then mapped to a severity band.
Baselines
The baseline period uses illustrative 2024 monthly averages. A month whose component equals the baseline normalizes that component to 50.
| Component | Baseline (monthly avg.) |
|---|---|
| Incident volume | 800 |
| Financial loss | $55,000,000 |
| Strategic / identity-fraud share | 40% |
| Flagged fraud-entity growth | 9,000 |
Severity bands
The rounded score maps to one of four bands. Ranges are inclusive.
- Low0–35
- Elevated36–60
- High61–80
- Severe81–100
Caveats & limitations
Two consequences of the normalization are worth stating plainly, because they shape how the number should be read:
- A baseline-equal month reads as Elevated. Because each component at baseline normalizes to 50, a month that exactly matches the baseline period sums to roughly 50 — which falls inside the Elevated band, not at a neutral midpoint. The reference period is Elevated by construction.
- The top end is compressed. The linear normalization clamps each component at 100 once it reaches twice its baseline. A merely bad month and a record-shattering month can therefore both register at the ceiling, so the Index understates how extreme the worst months truly are.
Update cadence
The Index is published monthly. Each release adds a new data month and, when the formula, weights, baselines, or bands change, a corresponding changelog entry below.
Changelog
Every change to the methodology is recorded here, newest first, so the Index is a fixed reference rather than a moving target.
- v1.0
Initial Freight Fraud Index methodology published.
- Four weighted components: incident volume (35%), financial loss (35%), strategic-fraud share (20%), flagged-entity growth (10%).
- Baseline period = 2024 monthly average; each component normalized so baseline maps to 50.
- Severity bands: Low 0–35, Elevated 36–60, High 61–80, Severe 81–100.